Topic: Chase Litton to declare for NFL draft

[svherd]

Fans bitched about Legg and Chase both, as I remember it. In the stands, they were all over him during games.  I'm just saying that on offense there is a complete change-over; no excuses now for fans to stay away because of our offense.  IMHO, you'd have to make up excuses now not to come back to the games next year if your a fan of Herd football.

They may have stayed away because of Legg and the offense, but not because of some kid being the QB. Come on, that's a stretch.

[chris88]

I do not want Chase or anybody else to fail that went to Marshall but he has very little chance of being drafted and developing as an NFL caliber QB if you look historically at average college QB's.  Most of the blog writers and pundits have no idea and most are passing along 2nd hand information they read on other sites.  The majority of NFL scouting departments are a joke IMO.  They spend virtually all of their time on guys they will draft in first 2-3 rounds, rely on contracted scouts vs FT employees in many cases.  It is why the majority of NFL teams can't keep up with the Patriots.  The Patriots, for the most part, deemphasize the draft and focus more on finding players that fit their system.  They know the draft is a crapshoot at best.

I just hate to see a guy like Chase who could have really benefited from staying imo getting information that leads him into a decision that may very well not be in his best interest.  On other hand, he is pursuing his dreams and I hope and pray he beats the odds.  For the record, I think Rosen and Darnold are good college QB's but I do not think either are elite by any stretch and it reflects the anchoring/confirmation bias that exists.  For example, I have heard time after time how accurate Rosen is etc by all the tv talking heads yet:
- Rosen has never a year at UCLA (3 seasons) where he has completed more than 62.5%
- In 2017 he only had 3 games in 11 starts where he completed more than 62%.  Many of his completion stats came from those 3 games...like 88% vs a bad Hawaii team and 72% vs a Cal team that only won 2 PAC12 games. He had 4 straight PAC12 games under 60% and in many games UCLA was behind allowing him to play vs softer coverage.
- Scouts/pundits talk about value of playing in Pac12.  Not really a defensive league except Washington yet Rosen only had a 13/8 TD/Int ratio in 2017 in Pac12 play. Jarrod Goff by comparison had a 28/11 PAC12 ratio his last yr and that included a 5 int game vs Utah
- His big stat lines were padded by throwing at least 45 times in 6 of 11 games
- He has been hurt and missed games multiple times in college
- He is from a wealthy family and doesn't need to be hungry for success

Now this doesn't mean Rosen won't be successful, but does it sound to you like a  franchise QB that is a lock for success and worth staking your future on that all these pundits are leading people to believe??

[_sturt_]

I just hate to see a guy like Chase who could have really benefited from staying imo getting information that leads him into a decision that may very well not be in his best interest.  On other hand, he is pursuing his dreams and I hope and pray he beats the odds. 

Prompts me to ask...

1. How confident are you that he will or will not make an NFL practice squad for 2018?

2. Assuming he makes a practice squad, handicap please the value of him getting coaching at that level versus getting another year here.

[QuickStrike]

Prompts me to ask...

1. How confident are you that he will or will not make an NFL practice squad for 2018?

2. Assuming he makes a practice squad, handicap please the value of him getting coaching at that level versus getting another year here.

Couldn't Chase have still have tried these things next year if he stayed at MU?  The advantage of him staying was to get more experience at the college level, and possibly improve any draft possibilities or NFL opportunities.  Chase's biggest issue is taking hits.  Another year at MU would have gotten him bigger & stronger, and more experienced at taking hits.  Right now, he could possibly make all the QB throws, but if he shows the timidness and hurried decisions when he's being rushed it could be a very short camp for him.

[MicDrass1]

He could have improved draft stock next season if he started.  I've been told the Greene kid is good really good.  Litton gets benched or beat out he slips off the board perhaps.  Biggest knock like Quickstrike said is taking hits and not being scared of them.  But character concerns will pop up in his draft interviews.  He's got a long way to go.  But I'm pulling for him.  Buffalo Bills!

[chris88]

Prompts me to ask...

1. How confident are you that he will or will not make an NFL practice squad for 2018?

2. Assuming he makes a practice squad, handicap please the value of him getting coaching at that level versus getting another year here.

As of now only about 10 NFL teams have a QB on their practice squad (you are allowed 10 players).  Why?  Because most carry 3 QB on active roster.  Most practice squad are heavy on guys who can also play special teams (DB, RB, LB, TE) and some OL.  You'd have to really like a QB to keep him on practice squad and/or have depth/injury issues.  So while it's hard to handicap his chances, the numbers say the chance of making a practice squad as a QB are not great. WKY ex-QB Doughty currently on a practice squad as is Kellen Moore from Boise St.  How he performs in any actual team workouts/camps could go a long way but that doesn't give him much time as those things start soon after draft.

Assuming he was lucky enough to make a practice squad, it would help him immensely as it would give him lots of time with other QB's etc.  As far as tutelage goes, he will not see the one on one work that other QB's get with the QB coach but how he picks up playbook etc etc could really help him and not being in school would allow him to focus 100% on football.  But practice squads in season usually have lots of fluctuation depending on injuries etc.  He could be on right path and boom he is gone for a more immediate need and that's a difficult life. On flip side, QB's in particular, at all levels, need game reps at game speed to get better and is why most NFL 2nd string QB are not young guys but guys who have game experience. As lousy as MU's offensive system is/was he would get benefit of game snaps over a 13 or so game season in college vs zero game snaps in NFL unless he ascended to #1 on active roster or played well enough to get some reps in preseason games. You can practice your jumpshot all day but until you are doing it in game vs a defense and real competition you just don't know how much it translates to on field success.

[Scottyo614]

Chris your points on Rosen and Darnold the reason teams are putting them so high is because they come from pro ish style offenses. Day one you’re going to get someone comfortable under Center. Teams are starting to realize these college systems are producing crap shoot results.

Few things for Chase. His tape wasn’t going to get any better. For those saying oh his stock would have improved, unless your name is Luck your stock as a QB will hurt. Matt Barkley , Connor Cook were guys who waited a year and went from 1st round to 4th. Chases mechanics are not good for tape.

Heck, let’s compare Josh Allen. Josh is 6’5 230 big arm. (Sound familiar?) was terrible against P5 but good against less completion. Wasn’t top 5 in conference. Last year he leaves, he’s top 15. This year they are saying late 1st round. His numbers are worse than Chases. Josh knew staying another year further hurts his stock. Chase is like a Cardale Jones. A big dude, with a big arm. Remember Cardale got drafted off 6 games starting? Maybe less. Why? Big dude big arm and some team thought they could teach him. We are looking way too deep at his flaws and not enough at what the NFL is wanting. Also sounds like Steinberg really wanted him. I trust Leigh. He will get him with a team.

[_sturt_]

As of now only about 10 NFL teams have a QB on their practice squad (you are allowed 10 players).  Why?  Because most carry 3 QB on active roster.  Most practice squad are heavy on guys who can also play special teams (DB, RB, LB, TE) and some OL.  You'd have to really like a QB to keep him on practice squad and/or have depth/injury issues.  So while it's hard to handicap his chances, the numbers say the chance of making a practice squad as a QB are not great. WKY ex-QB Doughty currently on a practice squad as is Kellen Moore from Boise St.  How he performs in any actual team workouts/camps could go a long way but that doesn't give him much time as those things start soon after draft.

Assuming he was lucky enough to make a practice squad, it would help him immensely as it would give him lots of time with other QB's etc.  As far as tutelage goes, he will not see the one on one work that other QB's get with the QB coach but how he picks up playbook etc etc could really help him and not being in school would allow him to focus 100% on football.  But practice squads in season usually have lots of fluctuation depending on injuries etc.  He could be on right path and boom he is gone for a more immediate need and that's a difficult life. On flip side, QB's in particular, at all levels, need game reps at game speed to get better and is why most NFL 2nd string QB are not young guys but guys who have game experience. As lousy as MU's offensive system is/was he would get benefit of game snaps over a 13 or so game season in college vs zero game snaps in NFL unless he ascended to #1 on active roster or played well enough to get some reps in preseason games. You can practice your jumpshot all day but until you are doing it in game vs a defense and real competition you just don't know how much it translates to on field success.

For now, at least until the combines, Chase appears to be getting ranked in the 8-9 range.

# of QBs drafted in 2015 = 7
# of QBs drafted in 2016 = 15
# of QBs drafted in 2017 = 10

Last QB drafted in 2015 = Trevor Seimien, Broncos, active
Last QB drafted in 2016 = Brandon Doughty, Dolphins, spent season on practice squad
Last QB drafted in 2017 = Chad Kelly, Broncos,  injured reserve

To think he won't make a practice squad at least seems to be a stretch, to me at least.

Would agree, as has been pointed out, there's value to real game action, and he could have benefited from that.

And of course, have to agree, as has also been pointed out, there's risk to real game action, too.

Who knows how things would have played out... maybe Chase takes a big jump in development as a senior, and he vaults into the top 5 QBs for 2019... maybe he suffers an MCL tear, and his stock suffers.

We just don't know. It's that do you want to take the bird in the hand, or the two in the bush kind-of thing. Conservatives like me think the bird in the hand ain't so bad, but I can't deny the two in the bush is completely reasonable.

[_sturt_]

Chris your points on Rosen and Darnold the reason teams are putting them so high is because they come from pro ish style offenses. Day one you’re going to get someone comfortable under Center. Teams are starting to realize these college systems are producing crap shoot results.

Few things for Chase. His tape wasn’t going to get any better. For those saying oh his stock would have improved, unless your name is Luck your stock as a QB will hurt. Matt Barkley , Connor Cook were guys who waited a year and went from 1st round to 4th. Chases mechanics are not good for tape.

1. Do we know what style offense we're running in 2018? I missed that announcement. I thought at least one of the OC's supposedly on the list does, in fact, have a history of running a pro-style.

2. Being mortal sucks. Because we're all mortal, we can't say with any certainty that we know whether his tape was going to get any better.

[Scottyo614]

1. Do we know what style offense we're running in 2018? I missed that announcement. I thought at least one of the OC's supposedly on the list does, in fact, have a history of running a pro-style.

2. Being mortal sucks. Because we're all mortal, we can't say with any certainty that we know whether his tape was going to get any better.

Sturt seniors are known to get picked apart on film. Again see Barkley and Cook as examples of how that fails. Both came from Pro Style systems. His senior tape is going to be graded differently. He’s going to be expected to make reads, footwork, arm position all had to be better.

Ryan Tannehill is the example I use always for intrigue on QBs. Tannehill was 6’4 played WR fully but his last year. His size, speed etc created intrigue. Limited tape created potential teams saw. So he goes top 10, proven Russ Wilson goes 3rd round because he’s 6’. To that same we could use Mike Glennon who forced Wilson out of NC St. out of college was drafted 3rd round. Was very average but big arm, big body at 6’6. Backs up at Tampa and Chicago hands him a nice contract. Why? Again because of size and intrigue.

I don’t agree with how QBs are evaluated next level but it is what it is. The NFL formula is pretty tried and true.

[_sturt_]

Sturt seniors are known to get picked apart on film. Again see Barkley and Cook as examples of how that fails. Both came from Pro Style systems. His senior tape is going to be graded differently. He’s going to be expected to make reads, footwork, arm position all had to be better.

Ryan Tannehill is the example I use always for intrigue on QBs. Tannehill was 6’4 played WR fully but his last year. His size, speed etc created intrigue. Limited tape created potential teams saw. So he goes top 10, proven Russ Wilson goes 3rd round because he’s 6’. To that same we could use Mike Glennon who forced Wilson out of NC St. out of college was drafted 3rd round. Was very average but big arm, big body at 6’6. Backs up at Tampa and Chicago hands him a nice contract. Why? Again because of size and intrigue.

I don’t agree with how QBs are evaluated next level but it is what it is. The NFL formula is pretty tried and true.

So, you've picked out a few anecdotal examples as support. Seems reasonable.

Is that to say someone taking the opposite position cannot do the same?

(It's a question. I've not researched it b/c it's just not risen to any level of priority for me. But for all I know, you've researched this so much that, indeed, you know someone cannot do the same.)

[Big Ol' Hillbilly]

We once had a back-up QB go get some strong consideration in Seattle as a FA... what was his name?

Derek Devine

[HoPPy785]

He could have improved draft stock next season if he started.  I've been told the Greene kid is good really good.  Litton gets benched or beat out he slips off the board perhaps.  Biggest knock like Quickstrike said is taking hits and not being scared of them.  But character concerns will pop up in his draft interviews.  He's got a long way to go.  But I'm pulling for him.  Buffalo Bills!

To me this is the biggest reason he left. With a new OC coming, I don't believe his QB1 status was a lock. Green got QB1 reps for a portion of spring ball last year. Let's say we go with a heavy QB run offense and Green fits better, what does his draft stock look like after being benched for a RS Freshman at a mid major? Some might say that's a long shot cause be started 3 years, but if you believe what Doc says then the best man gets on the field. I do believe Doc has shown that can happen to seniors.

[QuickStrike]

To me this is the biggest reason he left. With a new OC coming, I don't believe his QB1 status was a lock. Green got QB1 reps for a portion of spring ball last year. Let's say we go with a heavy QB run offense and Green fits better, what does his draft stock look like after being benched for a RS Freshman at a mid major? Some might say that's a long shot cause be started 3 years, but if you believe what Doc says then the best man gets on the field. I do believe Doc has shown that can happen to seniors.

If there was any chance that a RS Fr could beat Chase out after him starting for 3 years do you really think he would have any chance in hell of making any money at all from an NFL team?

[chris88]

Nobody knows for sure and all good points.  And true, pro style offense guys get benefit of doubt more than others. NFL personnel depts do a lot of dumb things in taking some and not taking others imo.  Chase is not Brandon Doughty. Chase has a shot but it is a long one...much longer than Wr Clarke imo.

[HoPPy785]

If there was any chance that a RS Fr could beat Chase out after him starting for 3 years do you really think he would have any chance in hell of making any money at all from an NFL team?

I don't think it would be about Litton not being talented enough to play. I'm saying a total change of offensive strategy. You think Litton could start for a Rich Rod coached team or Navy, for example? Don't think so. Not a knock on him, just doesn't fit.

If there is even a 5% chance that could happen and you think you can get drafted now, why wait and risk it?

[lexkyherdfan]

I am really confused why some are faulting the kid for leaving.  Majority of you wanted him on the bench anyway and figured Greene would beat him out. He might as well leave and get good training and maybe develop into a NFL QB. I know I am not going to speculate on here whether he does or does not make it.  I am an accountant not a scout. It is his choice and I hope he make it but it isn’t my opinion to say he is stupid.  I don’t think it was the right decision but there could be a lot of stuff none of us on here know about. With a new OC coming he may not have fit into the plans so why not move on. Sitting the bench would not have changed anything. 

As someone that gave it all for a The Herd I will be rooting hard for him to be successful and won’t be negative about it. I want him to make it an be another NFL QB from Marshall and prove a lot of people wrong.

Now what I am afraid is going to happen is all those that didn’t like him will really miss him next year should the freshman come out struggling and we don’t do as well as we should next year due to QB play.

[coalherd]

That's sort of an urban legend among herd fans. Derek Devine was a good kid and went to a few camps as a thrower, but I don't think ever had any serious consideration as a QB at a professional level, even CFL. His family was connected and he was happy enough to spend the summer on the roster. Got in a couple of preseason games with the Redskins. Some posters would try to use it as an argument of the quality of our bench players, the incorrectness of starting some other quarterback or some such nonsense.  There's no denying he was on some NFL trading rosters, he never had a real opportunity to make any roster.

bbcard1, ever see pictures of Devine's girlfriend, possibly now wife?  If so, then you'd probably know why he wouldn't have the time necessary to seriously entertain being a professional QB!!  ;)