Topic: SOS and Performance

[banker]

Just playing with numbers.  I posted the total offense ranking back through 2008 and someone commented about the SOS, so I decided to look at the SOS each year and where we finished in the final Sagarin rankings.

SOS - total offense rank - wins

2008 - 77 - 86 - 4
2009 - 86 - 81 - 7
2010 - 91 - 103 - 5
2011 - 56 - 102 - 7
2012 - 104 - 6 - 5
2013 - 122 - 12 - 10
2014 - 124 - 2 - 13
2015 - 138 - 64 - 10
2016 - 125 - 114 - 3
2017 - 120 - 82 - 7(so far)

So you can see the obvious transition from CUSA v2.0 to CUSA v3.0.  Shows that the combination of the weakened schedule, coupled with the emergence of Cato, caused our offense to spike.  I added the win column because I am trying to see if # of wins relative to SOS accurately defines how good of season we had.  So based on that, the seasons stack up like this from best to worst.

1. 2011
2. 2014
3 (t). 2013
3 (t). 2009
5. 2015
6. 2010
7. 2008
8. 2012
9. 2016

Based on the way I'm looking at it, the 7 wins in 2011 was actually a better job of coaching than the 13 wins in 2014 given the huge variation in SOS.   If we would have went 14-0, like we should have, it would have been a virtual tie with 2011.  just something I'm messing with, so would like opinions on how you would rate the seasons and where the major problems with the listing are.

[MUther]

With Snyder's players in 2011

[coalherd]

Seems to indicate, banker, that our SOS is as important, or perhaps moreso, a variable in determining how successful the Herd will be than our talent, coaching, etc.

[whf]

Just because you beat a weaker team doesn't mean you could not have beaten a bit stronger team.  The aberration remains last year, it should have never happened.

[banker]

Just because you beat a weaker team doesn't mean you could not have beaten a bit stronger team.  The aberration remains last year, it should have never happened.

And just because you lost to a strong team doesn't mean you couldn't have beaten a weaker team.

[banker]

Just as a reminder, in 2011 we played:

13-1 Houston on the road, finished ranked
12-2 USM at home, finished ranked
11-3 VT at home, finished ranked
10-3 WVU on the road, finished ranked, won Orange Bowl
10-4 Ohio on the road
Plus BE co-champ Louisville on the road

In 2014 our only truly good opponent was NIU in the bowl game and a pretty good La Tech in the championship game.

[The E-Man]

Just because you beat a weaker team doesn't mean you could not have beaten a bit stronger team.  The aberration remains last year, it should have never happened.

The main thing about Bankers theory is that Doc has proven Banker right. Beat a weaker team, and lose against a stronger team. Sad but true!

[coalherd]

Right now, MU's best chance to defeat a winning team will come against Southern Miss.  WKU and MTSU both 5-5.  Old Dominion has a chance to end up 6-6, as does Miami, OH.  Cincy, Kent and Charlotte all have losing records.  UTSA is also 5-4 and could up with a winning record.  Everyone else with a winning record that we have already played have beaten the Herd:  Florida schools and NC State.

Bottom line:  Herd can end up with a "sparkling" 9-3 record, thanks to a lot of victories over average to "very" mediocre opponents!!!  Can't tell me that is not a BIG factor why MU gets very little support/attendance from the average or casual football fan in the region!

[Apollo]

Just because you beat a weaker team doesn't mean you could not have beaten a bit stronger team.  The aberration remains last year, it should have never happened.

True, but we didn't. We lost to WKU among others during that run of ten win seasons. Shoulda coulda woulda...it did. Stop with the aberration rhetoric. John and his staff cannot beat teams with a pulse without a QB named Cato, fact. No way to dispute that. There just isn't. How many times does evidence have to prove you wrong before you stop responding with the equivalent of "nuh uh". That's all you can come back with because you can't handle the facts. You can cry anomaly, aberration, whatever all you want, doesn't make it less true. Thanks banker for providing that info, always enjoy seeing your statistical analyses of things. Sadly we have a few on here who failed statistics in school.

[THECHAMPISHERE]

Banker, how dare you use logic, reason, rational, comparisons, and your brain to analyze something!! You're going to offend all of Doc's family and friends on this board.

But, but, but...10 wins. Some people think 10 wins is 10 wins weather it's in the NFC East or the local B team of youth football. Yes, some people on this board think their 8-0 "B" team can beat the NFL's Eagles because they have a better record.

We all know Doc's records have been greatly inflated by the easy schedule he's played. Every AD in the country sees that which is why after 3 10 win seasons, nobody would touch him. Doc has also proven he is no better and maybe slightly worse against the same competition Snyder played...he proved that his first 3 years - having the exact same records as Snyder.

As stated above Doc didn't do any better against the same competition Snyder played against...but additionally...
Doc owns the worst season performance in the last 20 years, at 3-9 in the worst conference in college football, not Snyder.
Doc owns the worst debacle in Marshall Football history, wvu, not Snyder (Kansas St.)
Doc owns the top two biggest blowout losses in the Joan's History, UCF and WKU, not Snyder.
Doc owns some of the biggest recruiting class failures in Marshall history, not Snyder.
Doc is consistently losing to worse teams than Snyder did and rarely beats a team above .500...

...and yet...Doc is still here...

[Big City]

Schedule strength of 120 so far for this season and its been a struggle  ???

This team should have 1 loss. We shouldn't even be having this debate.

[Garbanjo]

Schedule strength of 120 so far for this season and its been a struggle  ???

This team should have 1 loss. We shouldn't even be having this debate.

We even had a shot against NC State, but "No Nuts Punts Alot" killed us lolol

[whf]

Correct, we should only have one loss.  But the consistant bitching about this being coaching issues is rediculous.  7 turnovers, read it again, 7 turnovers...by the QB.  When the heck will folks realize what that means to a team's win/loss record.

And for goodness sake, folks bitch about Legg all the time.  Both unexpected (unacceptable in my opinion) losses were the result of our DEFENSE not being able to stop either team on their first drives, then either team immediately after a turnover.

Our schedule isn't an issue unless one wants to make it so.  That's all I'm saying.  We play who we play, and we will forever.  How this discussion got back to Doc and Legg being bad coaches is truly beyond me.  I give..........

[The E-Man]

Correct, we should only have one loss.  But the consistant bitching about this being coaching issues is rediculous.  7 turnovers, read it again, 7 turnovers...by the QB.  When the heck will folks realize what that means to a team's win/loss record.

And for goodness sake, folks bitch about Legg all the time.  Both unexpected (unacceptable in my opinion) losses were the result of our DEFENSE not being able to stop either team on their first drives, then either team immediately after a turnover.

Our schedule isn't an issue unless one wants to make it so.  That's all I'm saying.  We play who we play, and we will forever. How this discussion got back to Doc and Legg being bad coaches is truly beyond me.  I give..........

Its always going to fall on Doc shoulders and hand down to Legg. If we were winning Championships or at least playing for one, Herd fans wouldn't be as upset. What's troubling to me, why aren't you upset that Doc isn't playing for a CUSA CHAMPSIONSHIP? this is a serious question, you should be asking yourself! You seem very well content with us being a mediocre football team.

[svherd]

Correct, we should only have one loss.  But the consistant bitching about this being coaching issues is rediculous.  7 turnovers, read it again, 7 turnovers...by the QB.  When the heck will folks realize what that means to a team's win/loss record.

And for goodness sake, folks bitch about Legg all the time.  Both unexpected (unacceptable in my opinion) losses were the result of our DEFENSE not being able to stop either team on their first drives, then either team immediately after a turnover.

Our schedule isn't an issue unless one wants to make it so.  That's all I'm saying.  We play who we play, and we will forever.  How this discussion got back to Doc and Legg being bad coaches is truly beyond me.  I give..........

You can't give teams 7 turnovers in two games and expect to win, especially when you give them short fields or pick 6's. Add to the fact that our offense isn't the most prolific and it makes for an L. The D has won us more games this year than the O. I don't think you can blame the defense at all. jmo

[Garbanjo]

Its always going to fall on Doc shoulders and hand down to Legg. If we were winning Championships or at least playing for one, Herd fans wouldn't be as upset. What's troubling to me, why aren't you upset that Doc isn't playing for a CUSA CHAMPSIONSHIP? this is a serious question, you should be asking yourself! You seem very well content with us being a mediocre football team.

+1

[HerdHead]

Correct, we should only have one loss.  But the consistant bitching about this being coaching issues is rediculous.  7 turnovers, read it again, 7 turnovers...by the QB.  When the heck will folks realize what that means to a team's win/loss record.

a.  Our third-year starting QB has regressed during his time here.  Coaching.

b.  We have no legitimate option to go to if we wished to sit a non-performing QB as a form of punishment or negative reinforcement, to allow him a break, to allow him to collect his thoughts, or to allow him a chance to evaluate things from the sideline for awhile.  Coaching/Recruiting.

c.  We run a middle school-level offense, with extremely basic passing routes using no combination routes, no rubs, no decoy routes.  Coaching.

d.  Our third-year starting QB consistently makes the same mistakes:  throwing high, throwing inaccurately, throwing off his back foot.  Coaching.

e.  Our offensive system is based, in part, upon the QB being able to run the ball or at least be a threat to run the ball.  Our third-year starting QB is no threat to run.  Hence, because of our middle-school level offense (see c above) and because our QB is not a threat to run, we consistently leave our offense in low-percentage down and distances.  It seems as if we are very often in 3rd and 6 or greater.   I would bet most of our QB's turnovers have come on low-percentage down and distances.  Coaching. 

[herd2win]

You guys are missing the fact that this applies to almost every team...most teams wins come against teams with losing records...that doesn’t matter if it is MU or Ohio State...strength of schedule plays into every teams record.

[HerdHead]

You guys are missing the fact that this applies to almost every team...most teams wins come against teams with losing records...that doesn’t matter if it is MU or Ohio State...strength of schedule plays into every teams record.

No, most teams in legitimate football conferences don't play this many horrible teams during a season. 

And by the way, winning record or losing record... the Herd was a DOUBLE-DIGIT favorite over fiu... AT HOME! 

[ThunderValley]

Yes we had 7 turnovers in two games. That is on the QB. Not sitting him and putting in another QB....that's on Doc.

Some will say we don't have a backup to put in..that's on Doc

By putting in another player at least you have shown you are trying to stop the bleeding...but no he does not do this....   that's on Doc.

Being hardheaded is not going to get you anywhere. If the truth is known some of the asst. coaches are scratching their heads over his decisions.

[Garbanjo]

a.  Our third-year starting QB has regressed during his time here.  Coaching.

b.  We have no legitimate option to go to if we wished to sit a non-performing QB as a form of punishment or negative reinforcement, to allow him a break, to allow him to collect his thoughts, or to allow him a chance to evaluate things from the sideline for awhile.  Coaching/Recruiting.

c.  We run a middle school-level offense, with extremely basic passing routes using no combination routes, no rubs, no decoy routes.  Coaching.

d.  Our third-year starting QB consistently makes the same mistakes:  throwing high, throwing inaccurately, throwing off his back foot.  Coaching.

e.  Our offensive system is based, in part, upon the QB being able to run the ball or at least be a threat to run the ball.  Our third-year starting QB is no threat to run.  Hence, because of our middle-school level offense (see c above) and because our QB is not a threat to run, we consistently leave our offense in low-percentage down and distances.  It seems as if we are very often in 3rd and 6 or greater.   I would bet most of our QB's turnovers have come on low-percentage down and distances.  Coaching.

Boom!

+1

[herdman]

First of all coaches don't save their jobs by blaming players. That doesn't happen.  Especially when the same mistakes are repeated continuously. Most people understand bad days and bad plays are going to happen.

Second, Marshall plays a very easy schedule and is in a less than stellar(and that is being nice) conference.

Third, they have set the schedule up to produce wins. 

Finally, Doc has one championship in 8 years. Then, see above about the schedules and conference. I can hear it now. Look at the progress we won a lot of games this year. But, not the ones when you needed them and no ring. That is what he shoul be judged on. Championships.

Everything is in his favor. The conference. His schedules and he is in year 8. 

 

[whf]

One very serious question...

What benefit is gained by a school and its fans to continually run down its own home when there are no other houses to move to in order to build a new home?

[svherd]

Yes we had 7 turnovers in two games. That is on the QB. Not sitting him and putting in another QB....that's on Doc.

Some will say we don't have a backup to put in..that's on Doc

By putting in another player at least you have shown you are trying to stop the bleeding...but no he does not do this....   that's on Doc.

Being hardheaded is not going to get you anywhere. If the truth is known some of the asst. coaches are scratching their heads over his decisions.

I watched Akron's RS Freshmen back up make his 2nd start and basically win the game for Akron against OU. The kid could run and throw. Why we can't develop QB's on a regular basis is beyond me. Cato worked his ass off to get better. Coaching plays a role, certainly, but kids have endless resources these days to better themselves - especially being a three year starter.
Chase has to turn it around. Hope he can.

[MUinDE]

One very serious question...

What benefit is gained by a school and its fans to continually run down its own home when there are no other houses to move to in order to build a new home?

Let me retort by asking you a similar question. What benefit is gained by a school and its fans to keep a subpar coach in place just because he's had 3x10 win seasons against competition that was ranked 122 OR BELOW in all 3 of those seasons?  Those wins still count as wins, I know, but anyone in their right mind has to take that into consideration when evaluating Duck's performance.