Topic: Herd @ MTSU - 10,000 simulations w/ analysis and upcoming matchups

[ought-three]

0/3 sims presents the following solutions for the Herd's upcoming games.
@MTSU
MU wins 3,678 sims
Average score 24-29
Raw probability: 38%
MTSU gets respect from the sheet due to their much tougher schedule (Alabama, Illinois, Vanderbilt, WKU, and LaTech.). Granted these were all losses, but MTSU has been tested and hardened by some very good teams. We, on the other hand, have played a much weaker slate - and have a LOT of injuries to show for it. In my mind, this has trap game written all over it. See below the graph to see other predictions. It's a split decision from all of us prognosticators.

v. FIU
MU wins 9,399 sims
Average score 31-19
Raw probability: 98%

@WKU
MU wins 2,144 sims
Average score 23-32
Raw probability: 11%



Sagarin favores the Herd by 3
Massey favors the Herd (73%) 35 - 28 (27%) MTSU
ESPN's FPI has Marshall at 0.0 and MTSU at -0.8, which I assume is a virtual dead heat.
Vegas currently favors MTSU by 3

So, there it is. I think this will be the test to determine whether we are a contender. I hope the Herd plays up to its potential. I think we have a good team, but we are far from the best team they've played this year. That may be the difference.

[banker]

The three teams they have played that are above us, or in our neighborhood, beat them by 27, 30, and 29 points. Bama, WKU and La Tech abused them.  Their best win is over FIU by 8.

You are usually very accurate, but maybe in the case the sim is giving them too much credit for getting abused by good teams.  They weren't just losses, they were beat downs.

[CharlestonHerdGuy]

Thanks 0-3. I always look forward to your updated calculations.  The only thing that I would add is that ESPN's FPI gives us a 40.5% chance of winning.  I hope Banker is right, but the 3 point spread against us concerns me.  MTSU is definitely beatable though.  I see MTSU as about the same caliber team as Southern Miss.  We just have to get it done on the road.

Just curious, between your calculations, Sagarin, Massey, and ESPN's FPI, do you have more faith in any of those more than the others?  I respect your opinion.

[banker]

Middle is not the same caliber as USM.  USM has the 14th ranked offense and the 47th ranked defense. Middle has the 41st ranked offense and the 72nd ranked defense. USM is 35th in passing yards allowed, Middle is 104th.  USM is 37th in third down defense, Middle is 81st.

Middle is a short passing game, dink and dunk type offense.  USM averages 12.92 ypc, Middle averages 11.56 ypc.  That doesn't sound like a big difference, but it is, they are separated by 40 spots in the rankings. They will have issues against our tight coverage.  They excel against teams that give big cushions. They are averaging less than 20 ppg against the better teams on their schedule.  They have played 3 teams ranked in the top 50 in pass efficiency defense (Marshall is ranked #1 nationally in this category).  In those three games they averaged 16 ppg. They haven't shown the ability to run the ball.  They rank 111th in rushing offense.  So if the passing game suffers they don't have a great backup plan.

[HerdnClt]

I appreciate the statistics. I do not think Marshall loses to middle. We Are...

[herd2win]

We owe them one from the game there two years ago.  It shouldn't be a tough place to play, especially not being a night game.  Could be ugly game but I think our nasty defense will carry us and Yuracheck will have a big game.

[CharlestonHerdGuy]

Middle is not the same caliber as USM.  USM has the 14th ranked offense and the 47th ranked defense. Middle has the 41st ranked offense and the 72nd ranked defense. USM is 35th in passing yards allowed, Middle is 104th.  USM is 37th in third down defense, Middle is 81st.

Middle is a short passing game, dink and dunk type offense.  USM averages 12.92 ypc, Middle averages 11.56 ypc.  That doesn't sound like a big difference, but it is, they are separated by 40 spots in the rankings. They will have issues against our tight coverage.  They excel against teams that give big cushions. They are averaging less than 20 ppg against the better teams on their schedule.  They have played 3 teams ranked in the top 50 in pass efficiency defense (Marshall is ranked #1 nationally in this category).  In those three games they averaged 16 ppg. They haven't shown the ability to run the ball.  They rank 111th in rushing offense.  So if the passing game suffers they don't have a great backup plan.

I hope your optimism is correct.  The statistics look good, but keep in mind tha Southern Miss accomplished their statistics against a schedule ranked 144th, and MTSU accomplished their statistics against a schedule ranked 86th (Sagarin).

[ought-three]

The three teams they have played that are above us, or in our neighborhood, beat them by 27, 30, and 29 points. Bama, WKU and La Tech abused them.  Their best win is over FIU by 8.

You are usually very accurate, but maybe in the case the sim is giving them too much credit for getting abused by good teams.  They weren't just losses, they were beat downs.

They may be getting too much credit for schedule, but on the other hand schedule is offset by their scoring margin and the variability therein. It should balance out for the most part. Bottom line - records mean little in this one.

 

Thanks 0-3. I always look forward to your updated calculations.  The only thing that I would add is that ESPN's FPI gives us a 40.5% chance of winning.  I hope Banker is right, but the 3 point spread against us concerns me.  MTSU is definitely beatable though.  I see MTSU as about the same caliber team as Southern Miss.  We just have to get it done on the road.

Just curious, between your calculations, Sagarin, Massey, and ESPN's FPI, do you have more faith in any of those more than the others?  I respect your opinion.

I think all of the systems have their strengths and weaknesses. I'm certainly am amateur compared to the others but one day I'd like to be more comprehensive. I think all of them should be compared to see how much agreement there is. This week, not much, which is worrisome.

Thanks for the love for my little sheet you all. It's much appreciated

[BHFIOHIO]

FIU 17 AT FAU 31

Herd 33 AT FAU 17

FIU at MT closer

might mean something....might not.

[biggreenarms]

Good stuff! I always enjoy your SIMS.

[svherd]

Nice analysis. I think this will be a tough one to win. MT has their backs against the wall and big bad Marshall is coming to town. They'll likely have many starters play who have been out the past few weeks. We'll need to play very well and be efficient on offense to win. jmo

Their big RB Parker will prolly play this week.

[BHFIOHIO]

Middle is not the same caliber as USM.  USM has the 14th ranked offense and the 47th ranked defense. Middle has the 41st ranked offense and the 72nd ranked defense. USM is 35th in passing yards allowed, Middle is 104th.  USM is 37th in third down defense, Middle is 81st.

Middle is a short passing game, dink and dunk type offense.  USM averages 12.92 ypc, Middle averages 11.56 ypc.  That doesn't sound like a big difference, but it is, they are separated by 40 spots in the rankings. They will have issues against our tight coverage.  They excel against teams that give big cushions. They are averaging less than 20 ppg against the better teams on their schedule.  They have played 3 teams ranked in the top 50 in pass efficiency defense (Marshall is ranked #1 nationally in this category).  In those three games they averaged 16 ppg. They haven't shown the ability to run the ball.  They rank 111th in rushing offense.  So if the passing game suffers they don't have a great backup plan.

Like. Thanks for the time spent researching those stats.

[goherd24]

The three teams they have played that are above us, or in our neighborhood, beat them by 27, 30, and 29 points. Bama, WKU and La Tech abused them.  Their best win is over FIU by 8.

You are usually very accurate, but maybe in the case the sim is giving them too much credit for getting abused by good teams.  They weren't just losses, they were beat downs.

I agree 100%. I have to disagree with this one by a lot. SOS doesn't matter when your team sucks. And MTSU sucks.

[ought-three]

Middle Tennessee lost to Illinois and Vandy by a combined total of 6 points. If MTSU was 5-3 with wins over Illinois and Vanderbilt, nobody would be taking them lightly.

[HerdHead]

Thanks for the analysis. 

+1 to both you and to Banker.

[banker]

If you take out Vanderbilt's fcs game, they are averaging about 11 ppg and haven't scored 20 points against anyone. They have a very defense, but that's all they got. They are 3-5 with wins against Middle, Austin Peay and Missouri.  Missouri is 4-4, but only because they played 2 fcs teams this year.  Illinois isn't much either.  They are 4-4 also, they did beat Nebraska by 1, the same Nebraska that also lost to Purdue.

Basically Middle has blown out bad teams and been blown out by good teams.  They've played mediocre teams close, but still lost. We know how to win, they don't.

[Buffalo Bop]

Interesting stat from Grant Traylor:

.@HerdFB is 15-3 in its last 18 C-USA regular-season games with all 3 losses coming on the game's last play. (ECU, 2012; MT 2013, WKU, 2014)

Per LT, that is a 65-59 OT loss to ECU in 2012, a 51-49 loss to MT on game's last play and the 67-66 OT loss to WKU last year.

https://twitter.com/GrantTraylor

[ought-three]

If you take out Vanderbilt's fcs game, they are averaging about 11 ppg and haven't scored 20 points against anyone. They have a very defense, but that's all they got. They are 3-5 with wins against Middle, Austin Peay and Missouri.  Missouri is 4-4, but only because they played 2 fcs teams this year.  Illinois isn't much either.  They are 4-4 also, they did beat Nebraska by 1, the same Nebraska that also lost to Purdue.

Basically Middle has blown out bad teams and been blown out by good teams.  They've played mediocre teams close, but still lost. We know how to win, they don't.

I'll certainly concede the point but point out that they have at least played good teams. We haven't, and the difference in the level of competition has an effect on how fast you play the game.

[banker]

Maybe I'm just convincing myself that they aren't that good.  Who knows.

I watched their game against WKU.  WKU can make a lot of teams look bad, but Middle looked very bad, overwhelmed actually, in that game.

[ought-three]

Maybe I'm just convincing myself that they aren't that good.  Who knows.

I watched their game against WKU.  WKU can make a lot of teams look bad, but Middle looked very bad, overwhelmed actually, in that game.

I hope you are right  ;)

[goherd24]

Ive watched a lot of football. I analyze alot of it as well and use cusa to make myself a decent amount of money in parlays.

That being said, MTSU is not aound defensively, their receivers aren't particularly fast or athletic, their WB is inconsistent but can be good. They are average on the line, and they have a huge tendency to find a way to lose games. Heck, WKU beat them in the first quarter. It just so happens that our strengths match up well with theirs. I am pretty sure we will be able to get consistent pressure and pick off a couple throws and hold them to 17 or less. Our offense can put up 35 to 40 on them if they play decent at all.

Everything about this game points to me putting Marshall as a Lock this week and they will be in every parlay i place. Thats all i can say. I am about as confident we beat MTSU as I was that we would beat FAU, and i felt pretty good about that as well.

[Apollo]

I think the big thing we need to take in consideration with all the statistical analyses is that our offense is just starting to hit a stride and our playmakers on both sides of the ball haven't been playing full games. With all these analyses that rely on statistics, Doc's style of play to rest our big guns when up on opponents works against any type of statistical predictions. That can't be accounted for and you have to figure that given a full game these guys will take care of business. I'm not taking anyone lightly but I also have faith in our playmakers, level-headed/unshakeable true freshman QB, senior leadership, and dominant defense.

[breckjimison]

Everything about this game points to me putting Marshall as a Lock this week and they will be in every parlay i place. Thats all i can say. I am about as confident we beat MTSU as I was that we would beat FAU, and i felt pretty good about that as well.

I had absolutely no doubt we would beat FAU.

[ought-three]

I keep hearing our offense is hitting it's stride. The same offense that scored 3 points in the 2nd half on Charlotte?

[Apollo]

I keep hearing our offense is hitting it's stride. The same offense that scored 3 points in the 2nd half on Charlotte?

Same offense that scored 31 in the first. And Birdsong played nearly the entire 4th quarter. I didn't say they were worldbeaters. I think they have a lot of work to do before WKU. All I'm saying is they are starting to find that rhythm. As always, appreciate your sims. I wasn't trying to knock what you are doing. Just wanted to point out some intangibles that can't be accounted for.