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The place to talk Marshall University sports! => HerdFans => Topic started by: banker on November 14, 2017, 10:21:04 PM

Title: SOS and Performance
Post by: banker on November 14, 2017, 10:21:04 PM
Just playing with numbers.  I posted the total offense ranking back through 2008 and someone commented about the SOS, so I decided to look at the SOS each year and where we finished in the final Sagarin rankings.

SOS - total offense rank - wins

2008 - 77 - 86 - 4
2009 - 86 - 81 - 7
2010 - 91 - 103 - 5
2011 - 56 - 102 - 7
2012 - 104 - 6 - 5
2013 - 122 - 12 - 10
2014 - 124 - 2 - 13
2015 - 138 - 64 - 10
2016 - 125 - 114 - 3
2017 - 120 - 82 - 7(so far)

So you can see the obvious transition from CUSA v2.0 to CUSA v3.0.  Shows that the combination of the weakened schedule, coupled with the emergence of Cato, caused our offense to spike.  I added the win column because I am trying to see if # of wins relative to SOS accurately defines how good of season we had.  So based on that, the seasons stack up like this from best to worst.

1. 2011
2. 2014
3 (t). 2013
3 (t). 2009
5. 2015
6. 2010
7. 2008
8. 2012
9. 2016

Based on the way I'm looking at it, the 7 wins in 2011 was actually a better job of coaching than the 13 wins in 2014 given the huge variation in SOS.   If we would have went 14-0, like we should have, it would have been a virtual tie with 2011.  just something I'm messing with, so would like opinions on how you would rate the seasons and where the major problems with the listing are.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: MUther on November 14, 2017, 10:26:53 PM
With Snyder's players in 2011
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: coalherd on November 14, 2017, 10:29:34 PM
Seems to indicate, banker, that our SOS is as important, or perhaps moreso, a variable in determining how successful the Herd will be than our talent, coaching, etc.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: whf on November 14, 2017, 10:33:51 PM
Just because you beat a weaker team doesn't mean you could not have beaten a bit stronger team.  The aberration remains last year, it should have never happened.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: banker on November 14, 2017, 10:59:02 PM
Just because you beat a weaker team doesn't mean you could not have beaten a bit stronger team.  The aberration remains last year, it should have never happened.

And just because you lost to a strong team doesn't mean you couldn't have beaten a weaker team.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: banker on November 14, 2017, 11:11:45 PM
Just as a reminder, in 2011 we played:

13-1 Houston on the road, finished ranked
12-2 USM at home, finished ranked
11-3 VT at home, finished ranked
10-3 WVU on the road, finished ranked, won Orange Bowl
10-4 Ohio on the road
Plus BE co-champ Louisville on the road

In 2014 our only truly good opponent was NIU in the bowl game and a pretty good La Tech in the championship game.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: The E-Man on November 14, 2017, 11:21:00 PM
Just because you beat a weaker team doesn't mean you could not have beaten a bit stronger team.  The aberration remains last year, it should have never happened.

The main thing about Bankers theory is that Doc has proven Banker right. Beat a weaker team, and lose against a stronger team. Sad but true!
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: coalherd on November 14, 2017, 11:45:40 PM
Right now, MU's best chance to defeat a winning team will come against Southern Miss.  WKU and MTSU both 5-5.  Old Dominion has a chance to end up 6-6, as does Miami, OH.  Cincy, Kent and Charlotte all have losing records.  UTSA is also 5-4 and could up with a winning record.  Everyone else with a winning record that we have already played have beaten the Herd:  Florida schools and NC State.

Bottom line:  Herd can end up with a "sparkling" 9-3 record, thanks to a lot of victories over average to "very" mediocre opponents!!!  Can't tell me that is not a BIG factor why MU gets very little support/attendance from the average or casual football fan in the region!
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: Apollo on November 15, 2017, 12:09:24 AM
Just because you beat a weaker team doesn't mean you could not have beaten a bit stronger team.  The aberration remains last year, it should have never happened.
True, but we didn't. We lost to WKU among others during that run of ten win seasons. Shoulda coulda woulda...it did. Stop with the aberration rhetoric. John and his staff cannot beat teams with a pulse without a QB named Cato, fact. No way to dispute that. There just isn't. How many times does evidence have to prove you wrong before you stop responding with the equivalent of "nuh uh". That's all you can come back with because you can't handle the facts. You can cry anomaly, aberration, whatever all you want, doesn't make it less true. Thanks banker for providing that info, always enjoy seeing your statistical analyses of things. Sadly we have a few on here who failed statistics in school.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: THECHAMPISHERE on November 15, 2017, 08:40:53 AM
Banker, how dare you use logic, reason, rational, comparisons, and your brain to analyze something!! You're going to offend all of Doc's family and friends on this board.

But, but, but...10 wins. Some people think 10 wins is 10 wins weather it's in the NFC East or the local B team of youth football. Yes, some people on this board think their 8-0 "B" team can beat the NFL's Eagles because they have a better record.

We all know Doc's records have been greatly inflated by the easy schedule he's played. Every AD in the country sees that which is why after 3 10 win seasons, nobody would touch him. Doc has also proven he is no better and maybe slightly worse against the same competition Snyder played...he proved that his first 3 years - having the exact same records as Snyder.

As stated above Doc didn't do any better against the same competition Snyder played against...but additionally...
Doc owns the worst season performance in the last 20 years, at 3-9 in the worst conference in college football, not Snyder.
Doc owns the worst debacle in Marshall Football history, wvu, not Snyder (Kansas St.)
Doc owns the top two biggest blowout losses in the Joan's History, UCF and WKU, not Snyder.
Doc owns some of the biggest recruiting class failures in Marshall history, not Snyder.
Doc is consistently losing to worse teams than Snyder did and rarely beats a team above .500...

...and yet...Doc is still here...



Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: Big City on November 15, 2017, 09:07:09 AM
Schedule strength of 120 so far for this season and its been a struggle  ???

This team should have 1 loss. We shouldn't even be having this debate.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: Garbanjo on November 15, 2017, 09:24:50 AM
Schedule strength of 120 so far for this season and its been a struggle  ???

This team should have 1 loss. We shouldn't even be having this debate.

We even had a shot against NC State, but "No Nuts Punts Alot" killed us lolol
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: whf on November 15, 2017, 09:28:20 AM
Correct, we should only have one loss.  But the consistant bitching about this being coaching issues is rediculous.  7 turnovers, read it again, 7 turnovers...by the QB.  When the heck will folks realize what that means to a team's win/loss record.

And for goodness sake, folks bitch about Legg all the time.  Both unexpected (unacceptable in my opinion) losses were the result of our DEFENSE not being able to stop either team on their first drives, then either team immediately after a turnover.

Our schedule isn't an issue unless one wants to make it so.  That's all I'm saying.  We play who we play, and we will forever.  How this discussion got back to Doc and Legg being bad coaches is truly beyond me.  I give..........

Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: The E-Man on November 15, 2017, 09:40:01 AM
Correct, we should only have one loss.  But the consistant bitching about this being coaching issues is rediculous.  7 turnovers, read it again, 7 turnovers...by the QB.  When the heck will folks realize what that means to a team's win/loss record.

And for goodness sake, folks bitch about Legg all the time.  Both unexpected (unacceptable in my opinion) losses were the result of our DEFENSE not being able to stop either team on their first drives, then either team immediately after a turnover.

Our schedule isn't an issue unless one wants to make it so.  That's all I'm saying.  We play who we play, and we will forever. How this discussion got back to Doc and Legg being bad coaches is truly beyond me.  I give..........

Its always going to fall on Doc shoulders and hand down to Legg. If we were winning Championships or at least playing for one, Herd fans wouldn't be as upset. What's troubling to me, why aren't you upset that Doc isn't playing for a CUSA CHAMPSIONSHIP? this is a serious question, you should be asking yourself! You seem very well content with us being a mediocre football team.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: svherd on November 15, 2017, 09:49:31 AM
Correct, we should only have one loss.  But the consistant bitching about this being coaching issues is rediculous.  7 turnovers, read it again, 7 turnovers...by the QB.  When the heck will folks realize what that means to a team's win/loss record.

And for goodness sake, folks bitch about Legg all the time.  Both unexpected (unacceptable in my opinion) losses were the result of our DEFENSE not being able to stop either team on their first drives, then either team immediately after a turnover.

Our schedule isn't an issue unless one wants to make it so.  That's all I'm saying.  We play who we play, and we will forever.  How this discussion got back to Doc and Legg being bad coaches is truly beyond me.  I give..........

You can't give teams 7 turnovers in two games and expect to win, especially when you give them short fields or pick 6's. Add to the fact that our offense isn't the most prolific and it makes for an L. The D has won us more games this year than the O. I don't think you can blame the defense at all. jmo
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: Garbanjo on November 15, 2017, 09:50:03 AM
Its always going to fall on Doc shoulders and hand down to Legg. If we were winning Championships or at least playing for one, Herd fans wouldn't be as upset. What's troubling to me, why aren't you upset that Doc isn't playing for a CUSA CHAMPSIONSHIP? this is a serious question, you should be asking yourself! You seem very well content with us being a mediocre football team.

+1
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: HerdHead on November 15, 2017, 09:50:36 AM
Correct, we should only have one loss.  But the consistant bitching about this being coaching issues is rediculous.  7 turnovers, read it again, 7 turnovers...by the QB.  When the heck will folks realize what that means to a team's win/loss record.

a.  Our third-year starting QB has regressed during his time here.  Coaching.

b.  We have no legitimate option to go to if we wished to sit a non-performing QB as a form of punishment or negative reinforcement, to allow him a break, to allow him to collect his thoughts, or to allow him a chance to evaluate things from the sideline for awhile.  Coaching/Recruiting.

c.  We run a middle school-level offense, with extremely basic passing routes using no combination routes, no rubs, no decoy routes.  Coaching.

d.  Our third-year starting QB consistently makes the same mistakes:  throwing high, throwing inaccurately, throwing off his back foot.  Coaching.

e.  Our offensive system is based, in part, upon the QB being able to run the ball or at least be a threat to run the ball.  Our third-year starting QB is no threat to run.  Hence, because of our middle-school level offense (see c above) and because our QB is not a threat to run, we consistently leave our offense in low-percentage down and distances.  It seems as if we are very often in 3rd and 6 or greater.   I would bet most of our QB's turnovers have come on low-percentage down and distances.  Coaching. 
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: herd2win on November 15, 2017, 09:52:01 AM
You guys are missing the fact that this applies to almost every team...most teams wins come against teams with losing records...that doesn’t matter if it is MU or Ohio State...strength of schedule plays into every teams record.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: HerdHead on November 15, 2017, 09:57:07 AM
You guys are missing the fact that this applies to almost every team...most teams wins come against teams with losing records...that doesn’t matter if it is MU or Ohio State...strength of schedule plays into every teams record.

No, most teams in legitimate football conferences don't play this many horrible teams during a season. 

And by the way, winning record or losing record... the Herd was a DOUBLE-DIGIT favorite over fiu... AT HOME! 
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: ThunderValley on November 15, 2017, 10:22:08 AM
Yes we had 7 turnovers in two games. That is on the QB. Not sitting him and putting in another QB....that's on Doc.

Some will say we don't have a backup to put in..that's on Doc

By putting in another player at least you have shown you are trying to stop the bleeding...but no he does not do this....   that's on Doc.

Being hardheaded is not going to get you anywhere. If the truth is known some of the asst. coaches are scratching their heads over his decisions.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: Garbanjo on November 15, 2017, 10:27:24 AM
a.  Our third-year starting QB has regressed during his time here.  Coaching.

b.  We have no legitimate option to go to if we wished to sit a non-performing QB as a form of punishment or negative reinforcement, to allow him a break, to allow him to collect his thoughts, or to allow him a chance to evaluate things from the sideline for awhile.  Coaching/Recruiting.

c.  We run a middle school-level offense, with extremely basic passing routes using no combination routes, no rubs, no decoy routes.  Coaching.

d.  Our third-year starting QB consistently makes the same mistakes:  throwing high, throwing inaccurately, throwing off his back foot.  Coaching.

e.  Our offensive system is based, in part, upon the QB being able to run the ball or at least be a threat to run the ball.  Our third-year starting QB is no threat to run.  Hence, because of our middle-school level offense (see c above) and because our QB is not a threat to run, we consistently leave our offense in low-percentage down and distances.  It seems as if we are very often in 3rd and 6 or greater.   I would bet most of our QB's turnovers have come on low-percentage down and distances.  Coaching.

Boom!

+1
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: herdman on November 15, 2017, 10:36:54 AM
First of all coaches don't save their jobs by blaming players. That doesn't happen.  Especially when the same mistakes are repeated continuously. Most people understand bad days and bad plays are going to happen.

Second, Marshall plays a very easy schedule and is in a less than stellar(and that is being nice) conference.

Third, they have set the schedule up to produce wins. 

Finally, Doc has one championship in 8 years. Then, see above about the schedules and conference. I can hear it now. Look at the progress we won a lot of games this year. But, not the ones when you needed them and no ring. That is what he shoul be judged on. Championships.

Everything is in his favor. The conference. His schedules and he is in year 8. 

 
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: whf on November 15, 2017, 10:47:26 AM
One very serious question...

What benefit is gained by a school and its fans to continually run down its own home when there are no other houses to move to in order to build a new home?
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: svherd on November 15, 2017, 10:54:50 AM
Yes we had 7 turnovers in two games. That is on the QB. Not sitting him and putting in another QB....that's on Doc.

Some will say we don't have a backup to put in..that's on Doc

By putting in another player at least you have shown you are trying to stop the bleeding...but no he does not do this....   that's on Doc.

Being hardheaded is not going to get you anywhere. If the truth is known some of the asst. coaches are scratching their heads over his decisions.

I watched Akron's RS Freshmen back up make his 2nd start and basically win the game for Akron against OU. The kid could run and throw. Why we can't develop QB's on a regular basis is beyond me. Cato worked his ass off to get better. Coaching plays a role, certainly, but kids have endless resources these days to better themselves - especially being a three year starter.
Chase has to turn it around. Hope he can.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: MUinDE on November 15, 2017, 10:58:29 AM
One very serious question...

What benefit is gained by a school and its fans to continually run down its own home when there are no other houses to move to in order to build a new home?

Let me retort by asking you a similar question. What benefit is gained by a school and its fans to keep a subpar coach in place just because he's had 3x10 win seasons against competition that was ranked 122 OR BELOW in all 3 of those seasons?  Those wins still count as wins, I know, but anyone in their right mind has to take that into consideration when evaluating Duck's performance.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: Garbanjo on November 15, 2017, 11:03:30 AM
One very serious question...

What benefit is gained by a school and its fans to continually run down its own home when there are no other houses to move to in order to build a new home?

Fair point

My response: we should be the class of CUSA, the Alabama of this conference every year. If not, move back to FCS and put our $$$$ into BBall
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: ThunderValley on November 15, 2017, 11:11:38 AM
One very serious question...

What benefit is gained by a school and its fans to continually run down its own home when there are no other houses to move to in order to build a new home?

Taxpayers and fans pay the salaries. By doing this you expect to get the very best from the employee. If an employee cannot produce, get some one who will.
 If your home is cold, insulate it.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: Herdalum83 on November 15, 2017, 11:50:55 AM
Correct, we should only have one loss.  But the consistant bitching about this being coaching issues is rediculous.  7 turnovers, read it again, 7 turnovers...by the QB.  When the heck will folks realize what that means to a team's win/loss record.

And for goodness sake, folks bitch about Legg all the time.  Both unexpected (unacceptable in my opinion) losses were the result of our DEFENSE not being able to stop either team on their first drives, then either team immediately after a turnover.

Our schedule isn't an issue unless one wants to make it so.  That's all I'm saying.  We play who we play, and we will forever.  How this discussion got back to Doc and Legg being bad coaches is truly beyond me.  I give..........

First off, it's Ridiculous. Second off, I blame Legg at least some for Litton's six interceptions in those two games simply because He hasn't developed Litton, when a kid is making the same fundamental mistakes in year three as a starter that he made as a freshman then some of that is on coaching. Thirdly, did you just blame our defense for losing those two games?? Our defense is the only reason why either of those games ended up with us having a remote chance of winning them.

Our defense did play it's worst game of the season against FIU that's true, but even then they still played good enough for us to win. The offense literally handed FIU 14 points. 7 of those 14 points were scored with our defense on the sidelines and the other 7 came off a 19-yard drive. You can't pin a 19-yard drive on the defense you just can't.

Also, our defense played pretty well against FAU. If Litton doesn't turn it over 4 times FAU scores 17 points instead of 30 and we score at least 40 points instead of 25 because the Owls defense didn't stop our offense a single time. Every drive we came up empty on was a drive in which we stopped ourselves, either with turnovers, penalties or missed FGs.

You can blame the players on the field for not executing until your blue in the face but it doesn't make you right. Want to know why? Because WELL COACHED, GOOD FOOTBALL TEAMS EXECUTE!

Well coached teams do not have the same issues year in and year out with poor execution and undisciplined penalties only poorly coached teams do. That's not to say well-coached teams don't get out-executed from time to time (usually when they are out athleted) or that players on well-coached teams don't miss assignments. What it is saying though is that well-coached teams do not game in and game out, year after year lose games they should win because of execution issues.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: GreenWhite on November 15, 2017, 12:55:53 PM
Correct, we should only have one loss.  But the consistant bitching about this being coaching issues is rediculous.  7 turnovers, read it again, 7 turnovers...by the QB.  When the heck will folks realize what that means to a team's win/loss record.


I guess the question needs to be asked why wasn't the QB removed from those games? According to many, we don't have a suitable backup. That falls on the coaching staff.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: bluedevilherd on November 15, 2017, 01:05:04 PM
You guys are missing the fact that this applies to almost every team...most teams wins come against teams with losing records...that doesn’t matter if it is MU or Ohio State...strength of schedule plays into every teams record.
Wondering if you have the stats to back up that statement...
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: whf on November 15, 2017, 01:13:39 PM
There was no influence from anyone other than the defense for the first drives and scores in either the FIU or FAU games.  Fire Heater, he didn't have them ready, was responsible for not making the plays on the field, and anything else you can think of.  Both teams had drives of over 65 yards right off the bat to score.  Both ran right over our defensive players, LBs taking bad routes to the running backs, DBs missing tackles, Dline being blown all the way from the LOS into the defensive blackfield.

There is nothing rediculous about observing and mentioning this.  Only thing rediculous IMHO is to always blame the Offensive Coordinator for our woes when accountability is really shared across the entire program.  If you honestly don't think our offensive scheme is highly partially built to keep our defense off the field I think you are hiding your head in the sand.  A desire to control the Time of Possession isn't an offensive scheme, its a defensive philosophy employeed by the offense.  Our defense is absolutely best when on the bench.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: herdfan129 on November 15, 2017, 01:27:14 PM
One very serious question...

What benefit is gained by a school and its fans to continually run down its own home when there are no other houses to move to in order to build a new home?


That's what I would like to know. You run down our school and program every time you try and pretend that our football program as good as it could possibly be.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: herdfan129 on November 15, 2017, 01:31:51 PM
There was no influence from anyone other than the defense for the first drives and scores in either the FIU or FAU games.  Fire Heater, he didn't have them ready, was responsible for not making the plays on the field, and anything else you can think of.  Both teams had drives of over 65 yards right off the bat to score.  Both ran right over our defensive players, LBs taking bad routes to the running backs, DBs missing tackles, Dline being blown all the way from the LOS into the defensive blackfield.

There is nothing rediculous about observing and mentioning this.  Only thing rediculous IMHO is to always blame the Offensive Coordinator for our woes when accountability is really shared across the entire program.  If you honestly don't think our offensive scheme is highly partially built to keep our defense off the field I think you are hiding your head in the sand.  A desire to control the Time of Possession isn't an offensive scheme, its a defensive philosophy employeed by the offense.  Our defense is absolutely best when on the bench.



This post just proved my suspicions. You are just a troll. Everyone should just ignore this goon until he goes away.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: Herdalum83 on November 15, 2017, 01:41:00 PM
There was no influence from anyone other than the defense for the first drives and scores in either the FIU or FAU games.  Fire Heater, he didn't have them ready, was responsible for not making the plays on the field, and anything else you can think of.  Both teams had drives of over 65 yards right off the bat to score.  Both ran right over our defensive players, LBs taking bad routes to the running backs, DBs missing tackles, Dline being blown all the way from the LOS into the defensive blackfield.

There is nothing rediculous about observing and mentioning this.  Only thing rediculous IMHO is to always blame the Offensive Coordinator for our woes when accountability is really shared across the entire program.  If you honestly don't think our offensive scheme is highly partially built to keep our defense off the field I think you are hiding your head in the sand.  A desire to control the Time of Possession isn't an offensive scheme, its a defensive philosophy employeed by the offense.  Our defense is absolutely best when on the bench.

Again the word is RIDICULOUS. It's spelled with an i not an e. And you're right both teams came out and scored on their opening possessions and then Heater did what good coaches do and made adjustments. Legg never adjusts to anything. Yes, controlling the clock is part of the offensive scheme and it is the part of almost EVERY teams offensive scheme except for the teams like Washington State who have no desire to do anything but outscore you. They want every game to be a track meet, they don't mind if their defense gives up 50 because they think their offense can get 60. It's also why Mike Leech will never win anything significant.

Also, newsflash, every teams' defense, even Alabama's is best when they are on the bench. Other teams can't score if they don't have the ball, plus a well-rested defense is always better than a gassed defense. Last season our defense was bad, but it was made even worse by our offenses ability to get first downs, putting a tired defense back on the field. Tired and bad isn't a good combo. But, pretty good and tired isn't either, that's why our offense needs to sustain drives. I don't know what point you were trying to make honestly by stating our offense wants to win time of possession and keep our defense fresh. Like duh?

And again, Heater isn't the best DC in the country but he's been solid in my opinion and I see no way, no how anyone who knows anything about the game of football can blame his defense for the losses against FIU and FAU. They missed plays true, but if the offense just takes care of the ball we win both of those games. FIU was the worst game the D played all year, but they still played good enough to win. Throughout the season the defense has picked up and carried the offense when it sputtered, couldn't move the ball or couldn't finish drives with points. The one game, the FIU game, that the defense needed the offense to pick it up and carry it a little, the offense piled on to the defenses struggles.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: Apollo on November 15, 2017, 02:03:50 PM


This post just proved my suspicions. You are just a troll. Everyone should just ignore this goon until he goes away.
That's what I've decided as well. Hit the mental ignore button.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: whf on November 15, 2017, 05:05:02 PM
I'm guilty, ridiculous, not ridiculous. Sorry I missed that misspelling.  Glad you caught it.

Those of you who think I'm a troll must be relatively new. Sorry I'm not, I'd sure be gone if I were.

Apparently you've not been reading here very long yourselves.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: Herdalum83 on November 15, 2017, 05:19:38 PM
I'm guilty, ridiculous, not ridiculous. Sorry I missed that misspelling.  Glad you caught it.

Those of you who think I'm a troll must be relatively new. Sorry I'm not, I'd sure be gone if I were.

Apparently you've not been reading here very long yourselves.

I don't think you're a Troll. I just think you're wrong on this issue.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: Big City on November 15, 2017, 05:40:40 PM
I know whf pretty well. He is a great man and as big of a Herd fan as any of us. I can assure you he is not a troll and personally supports the athletic dept in various forms.

One thing we can all agree on is we want Marshall athletics to succeed. We ALL want the best for Marshall. We may not agree on everything and each one of us share a unique vision. We all bring different backgrounds, experience and perspective to the board. This is one of the many great things about this forum; we all have our opinions on the football program, Hamrick, coaches and players. This is a great place to discuss and air our frustrations and at times celebrate together.

GO HERD EVERYBODY!
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: Garbanjo on November 15, 2017, 05:52:50 PM
I know whf pretty well. He is a great man and as big of a Herd fan as any of us. I can assure you he is not a troll and personally supports the athletic dept in various forms.

One thing we can all agree on is we want Marshall athletics to succeed. We ALL want the best for Marshall. We may not agree on everything and each one of us share a unique vision. We all bring different backgrounds, experience and perspective to the board. This is one of the many great things about this forum; we all have our opinions on the football program, Hamrick, coaches and players. This is a great place to discuss and air our frustrations and at times celebrate together.

GO HERD EVERYBODY!

whf is far from a troll. I don't know him personally, but he has always been a great poster even when we disagree
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: herdfan129 on November 15, 2017, 06:06:49 PM
Since whf isn't a troll I will continue to give some time to this discussion.

whf, do you think our program, in its current state, is doing as good as it possibly can under the current leadership?
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: whf on November 15, 2017, 07:58:21 PM
Here's what I think:
1.  Winning is more important than anything else this year for the future of MU football.
2.  How that get's done isn't even second; developing players for the future is.
3.  It really sucks that we experienced such a departure rate. I honestly don't know who was at fault; but it is my impression that the kids who left didn't fit in.
4.  CJ Revias is an example of what happens when you're challenged by incoming better talent. He could have left too, but he didn't and now he is starting again. He must have buckled down; don't know the facts.
5.  It's much easier to blame a coach than a player, I get that.  Chase Litton hasn't "EVER" looked like the kind of QBs that are really successful at MU. I blame the recruiting process on this, and yes, I put the acceptance of his coming here and being given such an important role on Bill Legg.  However, I also place a lot of that blame on the recuriters who aren't here any more.
6.  We are in conference C-USA. No one hates that worse than me.  If you didn't catch that, please re-read the last sentence.  While that is true, we are where we are and I'm not going to worsen the condition by making it sound like the conference sucks, the other teams suck, their universities suck, and we are doomed.  I'm nore like "let's keep getting better and making the conference better because this is where we're going to be for a long time".  Rip up your own home if you'd like, I won't participate in it.  C-USA is what it is; other than distance I still like it better than the MAC and SunBelt.
7.  Anyone who calls me a Hamrick apologist doesn't know me at all. Go back and read my historic posts on how he approaches a big portion of the fan base population.  Yet I see no sense in pushing the issue and magnifying the shortcoming. I also know Dr. Gilbert and I can assure you he will make the appropriate decisions for MU.  Even if I'd like to see a change to someone more personable, I can't begin to know if that would be a good choice when 100% performance against the job description is evaluated. I just don't know enough about the budgeting, meeting expectations within resources, etc.  Wish I did, but I don't.
8.  Lastly, I delete my HerdFans Icon at least once a week, promising myself I'll stay away. I do that because I am sick and tired of folks who used to be so supportive being complicit in contributing to our downward slide.  Stallwards are needed right now more than anything else.  Boycotts and bitching don't get it done IMHO.

Thanks for asking...
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: The E-Man on November 15, 2017, 08:04:11 PM

Lastly, I delete my HerdFans Icon at least once a week, promising myself I'll stay away. I do that because I am sick and tired of folks who used to be so supportive being complicit in contributing to our downward slide.  Stallwards are needed right now more than anything else.  Boycotts and bitching don't get it done IMHO.

Thanks for asking...

Those folks you're talking about to our downward slide are Doc Holliday and Mike Hamrick. You're blaming the wrong people when you blame Herd fans.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: herdorbust on November 15, 2017, 08:09:52 PM
Are you all still arguing over football? Its basketball season for me.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: Herdalum83 on November 15, 2017, 08:11:19 PM
There has to be a place for honesty though. It isn't tearing down your house to call it what it is. If you live in a a shack you can't call it a Mansion and just hope that'll suddenly turn into one and calling it what it is, a shack, doesn't suddenly make you're home collapse either.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: whf on November 15, 2017, 08:11:40 PM
E, I said also complicit. I stick to it. That's the way I feel, you feel differently.  Anyone can come to the games or stay home, if you stay home  IMHO you're complicit in the image of low attendance and lack of support.  Fact is, none of us will ever be the AD, or a football coach (could be wrong, maybe someone here is in the profession) at MU, but we can always be supporters.  Look at it like this, image always overpowers reality.  We can all stay positive in helping create the image.  That's how I feel.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: whf on November 15, 2017, 08:15:16 PM
Thinking and feeling are one thing. Declaring things to be so is another.  Declaring MU's AD to be stupid, dumb, etc. isn't the same as saying that one feels he sucks.  Saying Doc is stupid, can't recruit, makes bad decisions, etc. is a lot different that saying you feel or think he does.  We just don't know. 

You can feel our progam is a shack, but to declare it is is another thing. 

Wholehearted agree that we're here for sharing honest thoughts.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: herdfan129 on November 15, 2017, 08:34:11 PM
Here's what I think:
1.  Winning is more important than anything else this year for the future of MU football.
Agree
2.  How that get's done isn't even second; developing players for the future is.
Agree
3.  It really sucks that we experienced such a departure rate. I honestly don't know who was at fault; but it is my impression that the kids who left didn't fit in.
What do you mean you don't know who is at fault? Doc has historically had a high attrition rate. He is the common denominator in all of this. At the very best you could claim our coaches continue to recruit kids that don't fit in, but at what point do you start admitting they are having trouble with recruiting?
4.  CJ Revias is an example of what happens when you're challenged by incoming better talent. He could have left too, but he didn't and now he is starting again. He must have buckled down; don't know the facts.
No idea, glad to have him though.
5.  It's much easier to blame a coach than a player, I get that.  Chase Litton hasn't "EVER" looked like the kind of QBs that are really successful at MU. I blame the recruiting process on this, and yes, I put the acceptance of his coming here and being given such an important role on Bill Legg.  However, I also place a lot of that blame on the recuriters who aren't here any more.
I could be wrong, but Legg was the OC when CL was recruited. Sorry, but it falls on him. That is why he is in charge of the ENTIRE offense. EVERY. SINGLE. ASPECT.
6.  We are in conference C-USA. No one hates that worse than me.  If you didn't catch that, please re-read the last sentence.  While that is true, we are where we are and I'm not going to worsen the condition by making it sound like the conference sucks, the other teams suck, their universities suck, and we are doomed.  I'm nore like "let's keep getting better and making the conference better because this is where we're going to be for a long time".  Rip up your own home if you'd like, I won't participate in it.  C-USA is what it is; other than distance I still like it better than the MAC and SunBelt.
Facts PROVE that this conference does in fact suck. You can say it "viciously inhales" if the word "suck" is to much for you, but at the end of the day facts are facts.
7.  Anyone who calls me a Hamrick apologist doesn't know me at all. Go back and read my historic posts on how he approaches a big portion of the fan base population.  Yet I see no sense in pushing the issue and magnifying the shortcoming. I also know Dr. Gilbert and I can assure you he will make the appropriate decisions for MU.  Even if I'd like to see a change to someone more personable, I can't begin to know if that would be a good choice when 100% performance against the job description is evaluated. I just don't know enough about the budgeting, meeting expectations within resources, etc.  Wish I did, but I don't.
Hamrick is not a fan friendly AD. He's done a great job building new facilities which I think will pay off dividends for years to come.
 Having said that, I think its time for a change and would like to get someone with some energy and someone who understands technology and how to relate to the fans.

8.  Lastly, I delete my HerdFans Icon at least once a week, promising myself I'll stay away. I do that because I am sick and tired of folks who used to be so supportive being complicit in contributing to our downward slide.  Stallwards are needed right now more than anything else.  Boycotts and bitching don't get it done IMHO.
Boycotts do get it done. If we continued to average 28k game no matter what then Snyder would still be our coach

Thanks for asking...
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: The E-Man on November 15, 2017, 08:34:37 PM
E, I said also complicit. I stick to it. That's the way I feel, you feel differently.  Anyone can come to the games or stay home, if you stay home  IMHO you're complicit in the image of low attendance and lack of support.  Fact is, none of us will ever be the AD, or a football coach (could be wrong, maybe someone here is in the profession) at MU, but we can always be supporters.  Look at it like this, image always overpowers reality.  We can all stay positive in helping create the image.  That's how I feel.

We just have different opinions. I really fault Mike Hamrick, moreso than Doc for what's happening with our program and fan base. Mike promised changes last year and didn't make them.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: coalherd on November 15, 2017, 09:27:52 PM
I watched Akron's RS Freshmen back up make his 2nd start and basically win the game for Akron against OU. The kid could run and throw. Why we can't develop QB's on a regular basis is beyond me. Cato worked his ass off to get better. Coaching plays a role, certainly, but kids have endless resources these days to better themselves - especially being a three year starter.
Chase has to turn it around. Hope he can.

Actually, svherd, having watched a heck of a lot of football this season on the tube, both Power and G5 games, and most of those teams that look more effective, and are more productive, offensively seem to be ones that have a good QB who can and will run the ball.

You mentioned Akron.  Last week in ESPN "MACtion", OU beat Toledo up in Athens.  The Bobcats have a good QB from Canada, believe he is only a sophomore, who runs the read option very well.  Whatever you want to call our O setup, Zone read, read option, etc., it just misses a very key element, IMO, when the QB is virtually NO threat to run the ball at all!  Why the hell Doc Holliday persists in letting Legg run the crap he does is beyond me, especially when even the most casual college football fan can discern that our offense is operating at well below peak or optimal efficiency and effectiveness!
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: Herdalum83 on November 15, 2017, 09:37:19 PM
Thinking and feeling are one thing. Declaring things to be so is another.  Declaring MU's AD to be stupid, dumb, etc. isn't the same as saying that one feels he sucks.  Saying Doc is stupid, can't recruit, makes bad decisions, etc. is a lot different that saying you feel or think he does.  We just don't know. 

You can feel our progam is a shack, but to declare it is is another thing. 

Wholehearted agree that we're here for sharing honest thoughts.

I wasn't talking about our program, I was talking about our Conference. CUSA is a shack. That's not how I feel that's the objective truth. It is the worst football conference in America in 2017 by almost every measure. Doesn't mean it'll still be all of that next year or in 5 years. But, if we want to make improvements to the league we call home so we can make it more a modest single family abode and less a shack than work has to be done by not just us but several teams. Some of that work includes renevations. And sometimes during renevations you have to just gut a whole room and start from scratch. Now I beleive we need to gut the Marshall room and start over with a new HC and OC, but that's just how I feel as a fan. But, the rest about this league being bad in 2017 is a fact not a feeling.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: whf on November 15, 2017, 10:34:15 PM
I feel the conference has a couple shacks too, in the sense of fan support particularly.  Still better than the Sun Belt and the MAC IMHO.  But in no way do I think we are a shack. A few drafty Windows though.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: banker on November 15, 2017, 11:15:39 PM
According to Sagarin, CUSA is not only worse than the MAC we are also worse than the FCS Missouri Valley conference.  We are one spot ahead of the FunBelt.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: The E-Man on November 15, 2017, 11:59:31 PM
According to Sagarin, CUSA is not only worse than the MAC we are also worse than the FCS Missouri Valley conference.  We are one spot ahead of the FunBelt.

Ouch! and what's worse, we can't win a damn CUSA CHAMPIONSHIP!
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: whf on November 16, 2017, 08:48:34 AM
Do you think we'd actually lose to a Missouri Valley Conference team this year?  Rice probably would, maybe Charlotte.  Not sure who else...
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: MarshallManiac on November 16, 2017, 09:04:44 AM
Banker, how dare you use logic, reason, rational, comparisons, and your brain to analyze something!! You're going to offend all of Doc's family and friends on this board.

But, but, but...10 wins. Some people think 10 wins is 10 wins weather it's in the NFC East or the local B team of youth football. Yes, some people on this board think their 8-0 "B" team can beat the NFL's Eagles because they have a better record.

We all know Doc's records have been greatly inflated by the easy schedule he's played. Every AD in the country sees that which is why after 3 10 win seasons, nobody would touch him. Doc has also proven he is no better and maybe slightly worse against the same competition Snyder played...he proved that his first 3 years - having the exact same records as Snyder.

As stated above Doc didn't do any better against the same competition Snyder played against...but additionally...
Doc owns the worst season performance in the last 20 years, at 3-9 in the worst conference in college football, not Snyder.
Doc owns the worst debacle in Marshall Football history, wvu, not Snyder (Kansas St.)
Doc owns the top two biggest blowout losses in the Joan's History, UCF and WKU, not Snyder.
Doc owns some of the biggest recruiting class failures in Marshall history, not Snyder.
Doc is consistently losing to worse teams than Snyder did and rarely beats a team above .500...

...and yet...Doc is still here...

Glad somebody said it. I honestly believe Mark Snyder could've won a CUSA Championship in CUSA v3.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: Apollo on November 16, 2017, 09:27:04 AM
Do you think we'd actually lose to a Missouri Valley Conference team this year?  Rice probably would, maybe Charlotte.  Not sure who else...
You were the one that started saying the conference as a whole isn't a shack, then someone proves you wrong yet again and you flip flop to "well Marshall wouldn't lose to those teams". First, I wouldn't hold your breath on that. Second, they were going off your argument about the conference as a whole being worse and you just validated the argument by naming at least two teams that would probably get beat. But keep changing your argument when proven wrong, its entertaining.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: elginherd on November 16, 2017, 09:50:19 AM
Do you think we'd actually lose to a Missouri Valley Conference team this year?  Rice probably would, maybe Charlotte.  Not sure who else...

NDSU & SDSU are no joke. And yes the Herd could very well be beaten by either...along with more than a few G5 or P5 teams. The MVC, the last decade or so, is arguably even better than what the SoCon was in the late 80's through the late 90's. They are capable of beating any team in the CUSA, MAC or SB.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: herdfan129 on November 16, 2017, 10:37:06 AM
NDSU would %^&* stomp us.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: Herdalum83 on November 16, 2017, 12:24:02 PM
NDSU would win CUSA easily.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: whf on November 16, 2017, 02:55:15 PM
Apollo, you're a bit off the grid here IMHO. I've never agreed that C-USA is a shack as a whole.  Don't know where you got that I did, nor do I understand why you're so set on taking me on personally.  Guess my sticking to my own feelings is getting to you a bit. Sorry about that.  But I dare say I'll keep doing so.  Opinions are opinions. We all have them. Your insistence that mine is wrong won't change me holding it; nor do I expect to change yours.  But I will speak my own mind, just as you do.  If the judging gives you a charge, keep charging. It doesn't bother me a bit, but it does make me question why?
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: Apollo on November 16, 2017, 03:24:02 PM
Apollo, you're a bit off the grid here IMHO. I've never agreed that C-USA is a shack as a whole.  Don't know where you got that I did, nor do I understand why you're so set on taking me on personally.  Guess my sticking to my own feelings is getting to you a bit. Sorry about that.  But I dare say I'll keep doing so.  Opinions are opinions. We all have them. Your insistence that mine is wrong won't change me holding it; nor do I expect to change yours.  But I will speak my own mind, just as you do.  If the judging gives you a charge, keep charging. It doesn't bother me a bit, but it does make me question why?

First, go back and re-read. I said you said it ISN'T a shack as a whole. I'm not trying to "take you on" but you consistently ignore the facts and act they don't exist just because it doesn't fit your agenda. Yes everyone has opinions. Facts on the other hand, well I guess you just don't understand what those are. I'm not judging anything. We're telling you the grass is green and showing you blades of grass to prove it and then you still try to insist its blue. Speak your mind all you want man, doesn't make it any more right. I'm done.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: mckayt on November 16, 2017, 08:11:34 PM
Just playing with numbers.  I posted the total offense ranking back through 2008 and someone commented about the SOS, so I decided to look at the SOS each year and where we finished in the final Sagarin rankings.

SOS - total offense rank - wins

2008 - 77 - 86 - 4
2009 - 86 - 81 - 7
2010 - 91 - 103 - 5
2011 - 56 - 102 - 7
2012 - 104 - 6 - 5
2013 - 122 - 12 - 10
2014 - 124 - 2 - 13
2015 - 138 - 64 - 10
2016 - 125 - 114 - 3
2017 - 120 - 82 - 7(so far)

So you can see the obvious transition from CUSA v2.0 to CUSA v3.0.  Shows that the combination of the weakened schedule, coupled with the emergence of Cato, caused our offense to spike.  I added the win column because I am trying to see if # of wins relative to SOS accurately defines how good of season we had.  So based on that, the seasons stack up like this from best to worst.

1. 2011
2. 2014
3 (t). 2013
3 (t). 2009
5. 2015
6. 2010
7. 2008
8. 2012
9. 2016

Based on the way I'm looking at it, the 7 wins in 2011 was actually a better job of coaching than the 13 wins in 2014 given the huge variation in SOS.   If we would have went 14-0, like we should have, it would have been a virtual tie with 2011.  just something I'm messing with, so would like opinions on how you would rate the seasons and where the major problems with the listing are.

How do you come to those conclusions?  What is your formula based on?  How would you rank the other years below in with your formula?  Is 1999 a virtual tie with 2011 then too?

          SOS-Wins
1998 - 118 - 12
1999 - 111 - 13
2000 - 101 -  8
2001 -   93 - 11
2002 - 113 - 11
2003 -   84 -  8
2004 - 112 -  6
2005 -   86 -  4
2006 -   88 -  5
2007 -   73 -  3
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: banker on November 16, 2017, 08:23:33 PM
No, 1999 was better than 2011 as was 1998.  You have to adjust for the fact that both those years only had 11 regular season games.
Title: Re: SOS and Performance
Post by: mckayt on November 16, 2017, 11:07:27 PM
No, 1999 was better than 2011 as was 1998.  You have to adjust for the fact that both those years only had 11 regular season games.
Why does that matter?  How does your formula decide this?  1998, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2013, 2014, and 2015 are all very similar results with crappy SOS.